Política Interior VA UK

Germán Otero

Venezuela nearing the XXIst Century:
An analysis based upon the Chaos theory

ebruary 27, November 27, February 4, riots in Mérida, hooded violent protesters at the Central University, medical doctors' strike, transportation strike... During the last years, Venezuela has been shaken by frequent social and political unrest of varying intensities and consequences. In each case, both the government in power as its opposition have tried to explain the events by using a direct cause-to-effect relation. This was caused by the hike in gasoline prices, Bandera Roja was responsible for that other thing. Such linear view is quite simple minded because the relationships which are akin to society are quite complex; individuals and institutions interact among them with different aspects where it is hard to find congruence.

In order to try to understand what is happening in the country, and to anticipate the possible courses to be followed by the nation as it nears next century, let us analyze the landmarks in Venezuelan society's evolution during the past 40 years and under their most important features; it must be done dynamically and, based on such perception of the present reality let us lay some scenarios for a possible evolution in the near future. To start with, let us see what is a society. The Royal Spanish Academy Dictionary gives the following definition:

" A natural or covenanted grouping of persons constituting a unit being different from that of each of its individuals, with the purpose of fulfilling, through mutual cooperation, all or part of life's purposes".

In this case, the natural grouping comprises the territory of the Republic where most inhabitants being native to the country coexist naturally, together with those who decided to establish themselves here. Each and all of these individuals interact among them either fighting or cooperating in heir quest to reach the goals of their lives. Now the, this multitude of conflicts and consensus begets a complex organism carrying its own life, overpowering the individual's desires and expectations: Venezuelan Society.

This organism shares with other organisms --biological, stellar-- the evolution which is inherent to complex systems: they are born, they grow, they mature, they get old and die; then, those who are lucky, reproduced themselves in evolutive form to recommence, once more, the cycle.

To attain such evolution, complex systems show a series of features that let them survive in their environment.

The first feature is self-stabilization where the system tends to remain stable facing environmental changes, by using compensatory mechanisms. Another characteristic of complex systems is their capacity to define and follow their goals, independently from individual wills. In the same manner, systems follow a program through a sequence of steps to approach their objectives. In performing such activities, systems adapt themselves in order to avoid past mistakes, by reprogramming the diverse steps. Complex systems have another feature: their ability to anticipate, i. e. to foresee the outcome of a new series of events, thus being able to bypass damaging consequences.

Human societies have had a substantial impact on the environment, and not always positively, but these changes have made possible civilization as it exists. Complex systems have the ability to reproduce themselves in new systems in a way that the new entity is similar to the former but never its clone.

The system's stability depends on these factors' interplay and their mutual affectation; it has a series of mechanisms that we have already briefly described such as self-stabilization and self-repair in order to keep things as they stand.

A system may remain in such state for long periods of time since interrelation between the factors is fluid and stable. However, if the different factors deteriorate at a speed that is higher than the system's to adapt, such relationship becomes chaotic and turbulent.

It should be pointed out that we are dealing with a spot transformation, that is to say that linear relations between factors suddenly become turbulent, without any transition. Also, such transformation is unpredictable in time and it is not possible to determine which specific event is going to spark it.

Among a system's main features one finds that future events are unpredictable and that there may be many different ways of reformulating the goals and programs, even those less likely to persist under an unstable situation. However, the scope of possible events is limited by the existing factors and they may not occur outside the established limits.

Now then, it seems evident that the Venezuelan society's situation is at a turbulent stage. It may be evidenced by looking at the permanent disturbances at all levels, at anarchy in traffic, at substantial deterioration of public services (education, health), at continuous inflation, at rising criminality everywhere, among other factors.

In order to analyze the evolution of Venezuelan society under the current situation, we shall see some statistics from 1958 on, showing the evolution up to this stage.

On the economic side, we see that the per capita gross domestic product, at constant terms has gone down 250%, from Bs. 33,000 per inhabitant in 1958 to Bs. 25,000/inhab. in 1993 (in constant 1984 Bs. ).

Obviously, available resources for the people are less than almost forty years ago, while expectations have increased under promises made by those who rule.

From the social standpoint, there is a review of the incidence of crimes against persons, as well as of the number of homicides. The average of the years 1960-63 and 1990-93 was chosen for the analysis.

Reviewing the former graphic one observes that these crimes have multiplied more than four times in per capita terms; in absolute terms, that gives a tenfold increase. As for homicides, the situation is a bit less serious, they have only doubled on a per capita basis.

It should not surprise us then than the tremendous lack of security being perceived does have a real basis and that no solution is foreseen in the near future.

At the political level, the fact is that the 1961 Constitution provided the basis for a political party based democracy; it turned out being in fact a bipartisan hegemony.

If we analyze the graphic with the percentage of valid votes during the reviewed period, we observe the ballot casting has two well defined tendencies.

The first one, up to 1983, where one finds massive people participation in the electoral process, and the following trend, where an ever growing disenchantment with this activity is felt, getting at the 1995 elections to an effective participation of just over 40% of the electors.

If we consider the level of ballots cast, the dispersion of the votes and the depersonalization of many elected offices, no wonder members of society have a low appreciation for the current system.

Now, the combination of economic deterioration, growing insecurity and political disenchantment are fully eroding the system's credibility. Although, if it is true that a vast majority of the people do still answer to the question: what do you prefer, a sluggish democracy or a fierce dictatorship? with a preference for the former, their opinions on the prevailing institutions in the country are quite a different response. The following graphic is obtained by adapting the figures of some 1991 polls, published by the SIC magazine in March 1992:

From such graphic one may generally conclude that the players' credibility is quite low; at such point only two institutions overcome the 50% credibility level. We see also that the institutions being more closely linked to social, economic, and political factors are in the last place. If we take an average, we find that, as a whole, the system shows positive credibility for a third of the people only; such figure was confirmed by a recent survey.

Under a critical situation such as that been experienced by our system --with an impulse towards change and showing a turbulent feature-- there is no way of projecting how such situation will evolve. We shall offer, accordingly, some scenarios, warning that any of them is likely to occur in the near future. The first scenario is one being profusely used under electoral situations and it appears as follows:

Superdrake Scenario (a Superman and Mandrake embryo) where the main actor assisted by Merlin, his First Minister solve the country's problems by using spells and magic wands. For instance, they say the magic words "let oil prices raise" and the average oil basket price hikes to $ 40 per barrel; "let the crooks and murderers disappear" and they are wiped out by the enchantment, leaving quite an empty country. "Let the leaders change and give birth to a new generation to lead the country towards eternal prosperity" and done.
Unfortunately, any similar event's likelihood is nil, since the moving factor in this scenario is the word's magic sense, that although accepted by many, is practically inefficient if not joined by concrete actions. In order to provide possible scenarios one must first be aware of the limitations when offering them --illusions are not akin to reality. One must bear in mind that there is an infinite number of such scenarios and, consequently, any one may develop his own. However, let us consider the following ones:

The first scenario that we call Band-Aids Scenario. This is just a continuation of what the last governments have been doing. It is what one could call crisis management. A problem arises, all the attention centers on it, a Band-Aid is applied an let's wait for a new problem to show and put a new ban-aid. What are the consequences of sticking to the same therapy? The economy's continues deterioration will keep going slowly, with growth been subject to the oil price's ups and downs. More emigration of educated and talented young people who find no employment under stagnant productivity and scarce job opportunities, faced with lowered life quality and with increase indifference and apathy towards political issues. To conclude, more of the same.
I have called the second scenario the Mad-Max Scenario and it has to do with the possible consequence of a sharp and lasting fall of oil prices. The administration requires more and more resources. Oil investments decrease, oil output is raised to the maximum levels without considering the consequences on the exhaustion of fields. In three years Venezuela becomes a marginal oil producer. Government's central structure is cracked. The regions declare themselves autonomous and take control of their natural resources. The army goes out to restore national integrity. Civil war. Destruction of crops. Famine and death. The productive apparatus breaks down. There is a return to an economy or artisans or, worse, of plain subsistence with some prosperity focuses at the oil or certain raw material producing centers. All those who may do so, leave the country. Colombians complain that Venezuelans are invading their territory. Fiction? Perhaps, but if we read about our history around the end o last century, what do we find?
I call the third scenario Peace and Order In the "peace and order" scenario the crisis become more and more frequent, there are not enough Band-Aids, social unrest, an important portion of the "establishment" decides that time has come for a Peace and Order Government. A de-facto government replaces the elected one. Individual freedom is restricted, insecurity is reduced, the economy is stabilized and a slow growth process begins. Initially, there is a lot of support for the system but, as time goes by such system shows signs of erosion since it is not supported by all factors of society. Some of these factors have been repressed, repression is strengthened to the point of letting the system yield. There are two possible slopes for such transformation's evolution: a) the first alternative would be "new Band-Aids". A new Band-Aid system --such as the one we described-- takes on and some of the improvements made begin to deteriorate and we start all over. b) The second alternative would be the evolution towards a system where economic, political and social factors interact in a blanched way in order to maintain and enhance the positive aspects developed by the former system and to establish new political forms.
The fourth scenario would be the Saint Simón scenario; this is an evolutive scenario where there is an interplay of the several factors comprising the society's manufacture aiming at having the resulting forces as much in line as possible in the same direction and with the system's slow motion towards the same goal: seeking any society's basic objective which is the common good for its members.

As a basis to be able to start on the long road to recovery, certain clear rules must be established for the several factors; such rules must be simple, coherent, stable and possible, using all available natural an human resources.

Standards for domestic and foreign investments

Extent of State intervention

Defined fiscal participation

Clear premises for budget preparation

Progressive trade policy

In the social area

Real social protection of workers

Defined educational and health policy

Citizen security programs

In the political area

Increase people participation truly nominal voting

More simple and modern voting procedures

Effective elimination of gerrymandering in elections

Independent and modern court system

With the establishment of a clear, coherent and lasting set of rules, the system sill react and will get going when trusted by the people and the international system. It must be said that the rules need not to respond necessarily to one or several preconceived labels; enough if they carry said elements of clearness, coherence and stability. At the same time, mere statements of intent do not have the expected effect since the system has been scalded by many years of unfulfilled promises and it requires effective actions.

If we are to start on the road to the desired direction a joint effort by all layers of society is required, with no exceptions, even if that implies the sacrifice of some prerogatives by the several leading sectors; all the other presented visions imply erosion of their power up to their possible disappearance.

Bibliography:

Kauffman, Draper. An introduction to systems thinking, The Innovative learning Series,1.980.
Stewart, Ian. Does God play dice?, Penguin Books, 1.990.
Schwartz, Peter. The art of the Long view. Century Business, 1.991.
Baptista, Asdrubal. Bases cuantitativas de la Economía Venezolana, 1.830-1.989. Comunicaciones Corporativas, 1.991.
MF, OCEI. Anuario Estadístico de Venezuela, 1.959-1.993.

URL: http://www.internet.ve/analitica

Mesage to the Editor: editorva@ccs.internet.ve